What Effect Will Brexit Have on the Border Between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland?
Dev Gupta, associate professor of political science
Background: The “Troubles” were a decades-long conflict pitting nationalists, who wanted Northern Ireland to reunify with the Republic of Ireland, against unionists, who wanted Northern Ireland to remain part of the United Kingdom. The 1998 Good Friday Agreement ended most of the violence. While Northern Ireland remained part of the UK, the agreement forged important cross-border links between north and south.
In the past 20 years, it has been easy to live and work on opposite sides of the border and travel seamlessly across it, as 30,000 commuters do daily. Cross-border trade has also been robust, valued at over £4 billion per year. It is hard to tell when you’ve crossed from one country to the other, lessening the practical and emotional significance of the border for nationalists and making it possible for most of them to tolerate the status quo.
The European Union’s role: Because both the Republic of Ireland and the UK are part of the EU’s customs union, goods passing between the Republic and Northern Ireland do not need to stop at the border. After Brexit, the UK—and, therefore, Northern Ireland—would be outside that customs union, so goods crossing the border would have to be stopped and inspected, and appropriate tariffs applied. Suddenly the “soft border” established by the Good Friday Agreement would become a “hard border” complete with checkpoints and security.
Nationalists categorically oppose such separation between the Republic and Northern Ireland. Dissident nationalists might even use the prospect of a “hard border” to return to full armed resistance to achieve reunification with Ireland.
Potential solutions: The EU and Ireland advocate a Northern Ireland “backstop,” which would keep Northern Ireland inside the customs union. This would maintain the soft border between Northern Ireland and the Republic, but apply inspections and tariffs to goods crossing between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. Unionists vehemently oppose this option because they see it as further separating Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK, and possibly leading toward unification with Ireland.
Prime minister Theresa May has proposed that the backstop solution apply, at least temporarily, to the entire UK, thereby maintaining the “soft border” without sacrificing ease of trade between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. However, Brexit hardliners reject this solution because it would keep the UK subject to EU customs and tariff rules.
If there’s no deal by the still-moving deadline, the possible return of a “hard border” between Northern Ireland and the Republic could result in increased political tensions and a return to violence.