The Physics Behind Clean Electricity Targets
100% carbon pollution-free electricity by 2035”, “net zero carbon by 2070”, “500 gigawatts of new renewable energy by 2030”. Phrases like these have become ubiquitous in political speeches, environmental protests, and international treaties alike. Aggressive clean electricity targets are of utmost importance, and well established renewable energy generation technologies like wind and solar photovoltaics are already cheaper than traditional fossil fuel plants on a levelized cost of energy basis. However, the targets represent paradigm-shifting infrastructure changes that must be carefully engineered to avoid destabilizing the electrical grid. At the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, I help pave the way for this by modeling future electrical grids with high levels of renewable energy generation. The study of renewables “grid integration” depends on two classes of optimization models: capacity expansion and production cost modeling. The former determines the cheapest build-out of the future electric system, and the latter finds the cheapest operation of said system. In this talk I will focus on the math and physics behind production cost modeling, and how it is fundamental to both power systems research and grid operation today. Come put your linear algebra skills to the test!