Academics at Work: Statistical analysis of police use of force in Minneapolis with Claire Kelling

What happens when you combine the methodical process of statistical investigation with something as nuanced as engagement of the community? For Claire Kelling, assistant professor of statistics at Carleton, the intersection of data, people, and policy is the crux of her research, with her focus on real-world applications serving as a driving force throughout her academic career.

As an undergraduate, Kelling majored in statistics, but wanted to explore other interests simultaneously as she “immediately saw applications [of statistics] in other fields.” Consequently, she became involved in advocacy work in gender-based violence, helping organize Take Back the Night events and minoring in women’s and gender studies.

“This was really energizing and important work for me,” she said.

Kelling was able to further explore the intersection between statistics and policy in graduate school, largely in criminal justice and policing. As she transitioned into life in Northfield and Minnesota, Kelling began to focus on community-based work, rather than mostly institutional or theoretical statistics research, explaining that it was important to her to “invest more in the local community.”

At Carleton, Kelling is continuing to conduct research in the areas of policy and policing through her three current projects. The first is titled, “Exploring the Role of Proximity and Points of Interest in Studying Urban Intimate Partner Violence,” which seeks to understand how to quantify social and spatial closeness. She is working with student research assistants Maggie Votruba ’25, Mia Wang ’26, recent alum Noorah Aldaghlas ’24, and Rachel Kim ’27 on this project.

“If two neighborhoods share a border, they’re [physically] close,” Kelling explained, “but we’re trying to think if there are ways ties are broken because of social dynamics… If two communities have vastly different racial compositions, are ties between them broken? Should they not be considered truly neighbors?”

She is planning to submit the article she wrote for this project to a peer-reviewed journal in the coming weeks.

Kelling’s second project, “Investigation of the Effects of Geocoding and Spatial Jittering on Point Process Inference,” focuses on the confidentiality of personal data and seeks to balance the spatial privacy of data sources with maintaining statistical quality. She is assisted by Collin Eldridge ’25; Sammi Sheridan ’24, current educational associate for the Center for Community and Civic Engagement (CCCE); and Christie Song ’25.

Her third project is titled, “Ward 9 Policing Pulse: Interactive Force Map.” This project most clearly embodies Kelling’s desire to do statistical research that is meaningful and accessible to the public. The Carleton CCCE is heavily involved in this project as well, connecting Kelling with her community partner in Minneapolis, an organization called Confluence Studio. She is also working with Kai Zhang ’25 and Cynthia Leng ’25 on this project.

Using existing policing data, Kelling and her team are constructing a website that maps the use of police force in the Ward 9 neighborhood of Minneapolis. Her goal with the website is to create an avenue for the community living in Ward 9 to “analyze data [that the] police publish about policing in their neighborhood in a more accessible way, so they can learn more about how their community is being policed or drive conversation about the Third Precinct.”

The Third Precinct, which contains the police station that was burned down in May 2020 during the protests following the police murder of George Floyd, is located in Ward 9. Conversations about how to approach the relationship between the neighborhood and police are still ongoing.

“Let’s be cognizant of how this community is still being policed today despite discussions of reform in the police department,” Kelling said.

Not only is Kelling’s interdisciplinary lens prominent in the focus of her research, it also has greatly shaped the way she views statistics in academia. There are many areas for improvement with methodology in statistical research that she wants to highlight, and she is trying to make space in the field for work like hers that engages with communities directly. Not many statisticians are trained or supported to be involved in similar types of work, and it is important to her that more people be brought into the conversation.

“If you’re going to do applied statistics, don’t let [the application] be an afterthought,” she said. “The methodology being developed should be fundamentally motivated by its application.”

Kelling advocates for a participatory process, as evident in her own projects, as opposed to “helicopter” or merely consultatory research. In addition to intentionally keeping these principles in her research, Kelling served as chair of the Organizing Committee for the Ingram Olkin Forum last fall, a conference sponsored by the National Institute of Statistical Sciences dedicated to addressing societal issues with a focus on statistics. The topics discussed at this forum were disseminated in data science journal CHANCE, and Kelling has co-authored three of them about spatial statistics, standardization of data, and introducing statistical analysis of police use of force. 

As a professor on the tenure track for Carleton’s Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Kelling continues to bring her values into her classroom. She also has organized a writing group for new faculty members to facilitate connections between departments, in collaboration with Jade Hoyer ’07, assistant professor of art, and Rebecca Brueckmann, associate professor of history. Kelling is also a faculty adviser for the student group GeMMS (Gender Minorities in Math and Statistics), which is a significant part of her role within the department. Her research group is also much larger than is typical of a department team.

Kelling’s research is “personally rewarding and professionally important,” she said. “I think most real-world problems involve interdisciplinary work.”

This story is part of a series of interviews with Carleton faculty about their research and engagements with the Carleton community. The Academics at Work series allows Carleton professors to talk about the changes they have observed and help lead in their own academic communities, as well as provide further insight into the work they do at Carleton.