Math & Stats Colloquium: Ben Orlin
Speaker: Ben Orlin, Math with Bad Drawings
Title: Expected Value is Overrated
Abstract: I resisted titling this talk "Expected value is stupid." Expected value, i.e., the long-run average, is not stupid -- but our reliance on it sometimes is. We invoke it even when the long run is unreachable, when the average is the wrong criterion, and even when "long-run average" is a contradiction in terms. Explored with bad drawings (and examples from sports, labor economics, and pub trivia).